How to predict the future of your OKRs (and why it matters)

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PUBLISHED

Oct 25, 2024

READING TIME

3 min & 32 sec

Dear Reader,

Ever sat in an OKR review meeting feeling like you're just going through the motions or reporting without meaning? You're not alone. As a Head of Product, I've been there too. But what if I told you there's a way to make your OKRs truly useful for decision-making? Let's dive in.

The power of predicting the future

One of my favorite ways of helping teams pressure-test their OKRs is by trying to predict the future. I want them to think about the answer to “Imagine a check-in 4 weeks down the road. With whom will you look at these OKRs and discussion emerges from looking at the changed values and confidence?”

This is similar to a premortem exercise. By predicting the future, teams can anticipate how useful their OKRs are for making decisions.

Why typical OKRs fail the "check-in-ability" test

Let’s use one of the first (documented) KRs I wrote as a Head of Product 6+ years (don’t judge me):

KR1: Understand 'feature' map of product status quo and compare with user expectations.

KR2: Develop design guiding principles for product simplification.

Imagine a check-in four weeks down the road:

A: “How are we doing on KR1?”

B: “I think we better understood the feature map.”

A: “Ok, by how much?”

B: “I think would put the confidence at 80%".”

A: “But…why?”

B: “Because it still feels on track.”

A: “And KR2?”

B. “We have scheduled a first meeting to discuss the design guiding principles. So, I estimate the progress to be about 20%.”

A: “Will you do anything differently based on the progress of these KRs?“

B: “No, I think everything works according to plan.”

How would you rate the check-in-ability of these KRs? Spoiler: NOT GREAT. They can neither demonstrate real progress nor guide a conversation about priorities.

But fixing KRs like these by just adding numbers would be too short-sighted. After all, how check-in-able is a KR with a number, if you can’t influence it, if it’s too lagging, or if it’s a generic KPI?

Predicting the future of your OKRs isn't about being psychic. It's about understanding what they will help you do differently later, so they can be more useful now.

HOW TO PUT THIS THEORY INTO PRACTICE

Be clear on what OKRs should do for you. Articulate what change OKRs should create for whom? Is this primarily a reporting exercise or an actual prioritization tool for the team?
Role-play a check-in. How would the conversations of a check-in for this OKR go? Would there be meaningful conversations or just nodding in agreement as you blaze through the numbers?
Change the attributes. Which attribute is missing from your OKRs to make them more check-in-able? Do you need more precise numbers? Do the KRs need to be more leading? Do you need a more influenceable metric?

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Thank you for Practicing Product,

Tim

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