How to predict the future of your OKRs (and why it matters)

​Dear Reader,​

Ever sat in an OKR review meeting feeling like you're just going through the motions or reporting without meaning? You're not alone. As a Head of Product, I've been there too. But what if I told you there's a way to make your OKRs truly useful for decision-making? Let's dive in.

The power of predicting the future

One of my favorite ways of helping teams pressure-test their OKRs is by trying to predict the future. I want them to think about the answer to “Imagine a check-in 4 weeks down the road. With whom will you look at these OKRs and discussion emerges from looking at the changed values and confidence?”

This is similar to a premortem exercise. By predicting the future, teams can anticipate how useful their OKRs are for making decisions.

Why typical OKRs fail the "check-in-ability" test

Let’s use one of the first (documented) KRs I wrote as a Head of Product 6+ years (don’t judge me):

KR1: Understand 'feature' map of product status quo and compare with user expectations.

KR2: Develop design guiding principles for product simplification.

Imagine a check-in four weeks down the road:

A: “How are we doing on KR1?”

B: “I think we better understood the feature map.”

A: “Ok, by how much?”

B: “I think would put the confidence at 80%".”

A: “But…why?”

B: “Because it still feels on track.”

A: “And KR2?”

B. “We have scheduled a first meeting to discuss the design guiding principles. So, I estimate the progress to be about 20%.”

A: “Will you do anything differently based on the progress of these KRs?“

B: “No, I think everything works according to plan.”

A:

How would you rate the check-in-ability of these KRs? Spoiler: NOT GREAT. They can neither demonstrate real progress nor guide a conversation about priorities.

But fixing KRs like these by just adding numbers would be too short-sighted. After all, how check-in-able is a KR with a number, if you can’t influence it, if it’s too lagging, or if it’s a generic KPI?

Predicting the future of your OKRs isn't about being psychic. It's about understanding what they will help you do differently later, so they can be more useful now.

Did you enjoy this one or have feedback? Do reply. It's motivating. I'm not a robot; I read and respond to every subscriber email I get (just ask around). If this newsletter isn't for you anymore, you can unsubscribe here.

Thank you for Practicing Product,

​Tim​

Content I found Practical This Week

The #1 Reason Why Most OKRs Suck! ​ Read it here

What did you think of this week's newsletter?

Who is Tim Herbig?

As a Product Management Coach, I guide Product Teams to measure the real progress of their evidence-informed decisions.

I focus on better practices to connect the dots of Product Strategy, Product OKRs, and Product Discovery.